The first solar tower power plant went online in 2008, making it a relatively new technology, with only 1GW of installed capacity. Despite limited deployment to date, CSP’s overall installed capacity-to-cost ratio looks much better than any other technology. It took solar PV 100 GW of installed capacity to reach the same average LCOE that CSP tower design has reached with only 1 GW of installed capacity.
And CSP costs are dropping. According to International Renewable Energy Agency's (IRENA) report, the global weighted average LCOE for CSP fell 46% between 2010 and 2018, and in just one year, from 2017 to 2018, the LCOE dropped a further 26%. Recent auction prices for plants to be commissioned in between 2020 and 2022 set record breaking prices of between $50 and $70 /MWh indicating further cost reductions of up to 73% in the next few years. Based on these dramatic cost reductions and ever increasing demand for dispatchable renewable power to provide high value peaking and balancing services, the future of CSP looks bright.
Although the current deployment of the solar tower and parabolic trough CSP plant deployments are 1 GW and 7 GW respectively, IRENA estimates that 633 GW of CSP could be deployed by 2050, representing a nearly $2 trillion market opportunity over the next 30 years. With the ability to improve CSP output and undercut market leading LCOEs, Odqa’s technology is uniquely positioned to capture a significant portion of this potential.
Based on IRENA’s subsystem and cost breakdown, the receiver and integrated subsystem contribute to about 10% of the total cost of a solar tower CSP plant. Thus, there is a $200 billion market opportunity for Odqa’s technology in concentrated solar power over the next 30 years.
Odqa’s receiver unlocks high temperature power cycles for CSP and paves the way to a further cost decrease up to 40% compared to current state of the art technologies. This new generation power plant would have the potential to generate electricity below 50 $/MWh, undercutting the marginal operating cost of almost 900 GW of coal power plant capacity potentially online in 2020.
Furthermore, Odqa’s receiver opens the potential for concentrated solar process heat generation in the cement, petrochemical, refinery and glass industries, representing an annual $660 billion market opportunity.